Markets give Democrats — odds of winning the House and — in the Senate. If every market favorite wins, — of the — seats on the ballot would go to candidates Stand With Crypto rates pro-crypto (— today), and — would go to candidates it has not yet graded.
Switch between Senate and House, and choose which races to show. These filters also apply to the race cards below. A state with more than one House race is split into stripes, and its label shows how many. Click a state to filter the race cards.
Sorted by when polls close (ET), closest race first at each time. Large percentages are prediction-market win odds (the market-implied chance a candidate wins) until votes are counted. The Polling average box shows estimated vote share from published surveys, as aggregated by 270toWin.
The committees that write crypto law change chairs if the majority flips. Ranking Members are usually, though not automatically, next in line.
Democratic control probability, daily close, Kalshi and Polymarket averaged.
Where each of Blockchain Association’s policy priorities stands, and why the new Congress matters for it.
When the last polls close in each race on November 3, Eastern time. Switch between priority races and all races. Some counties close earlier.
Definitions and sources behind each number.
Grades. From Stand With Crypto’s public scores, converted with its own scale: A is 90 and up, B 70 to 89, C 50 to 69, D 25 to 49, F below 25. We treat A and B as pro-crypto, C as neutral, and D and F as against. N/G means Stand With Crypto has not graded the candidate, usually because they have not completed its survey or built a record on crypto. It is not a neutral rating.
Market odds. The average of Kalshi and Polymarket prices (Kalshi only where Polymarket has no market), shown as the market-implied chance a candidate or party wins. Prices are refreshed about once an hour; the time of the latest refresh is shown under the headline. They are market prices, not the Association’s forecast. Where both finalists are from the same party, there is no candidate-level market and no odds are shown. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn takes the Democratic side of the market.
Polling averages. From 270toWin: an average of recent published polls, one per pollster. Where 270toWin has no average, the card shows its latest poll and says so; where it has no general-election polling, the card leaves the polling box off. Polls estimate each candidate’s share of the vote; markets estimate the chance of winning. Polling is re-checked once a day and shown as of the retrieval date on each card.
Seats by crypto stance. All 470 Senate and House seats on the ballot, grouped by the Stand With Crypto grade of today’s holder and of the market favorite (or the winner once a race is called): pro-crypto (A/B), neutral (C), against (D/F) or not yet graded. A race with no market price is counted under its current holder.
Seats changing hands. Compares each seat’s current holder with the market favorite, or with the winner once a race is called. To pro-crypto: an A/B candidate takes a seat held by someone who is not rated A/B. Away from pro-crypto: the reverse. Stance unknown: the favorite has no grade yet. Seats with no change are not listed.
Priority races. 61 races (18 Senate, 43 House) selected by Blockchain Association staff, including competitive seats that could decide control of either chamber, Stand With Crypto battleground and advertising-program races, and members of the committees that write crypto law.
Relevant Committees filter. Races where the incumbent sits on a committee with jurisdiction over digital assets: House Financial Services, House Agriculture and House Ways and Means, or Senate Banking, Senate Agriculture and Senate Finance. Committee assignments are from 119th Congress rosters.
Election night. Vote counts come from state election sites. Race calls are entered by staff once AP publicly reports them, with the time and a link to AP’s report.
All figures on this page are third-party data. See the disclaimer.
Disclaimer. This dashboard compiles publicly available data from third parties, including Stand With Crypto candidate grades, Kalshi and Polymarket prediction-market prices, 270toWin polling averages, and election-night results from outside providers. Blockchain Association does not produce, verify or guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of this data, and figures may change after they are shown here. Its inclusion does not mean Blockchain Association endorses any candidate, party, source or market. This page is provided for informational purposes only and is not legal, financial or investment advice.